FAILING TO REALIZE OR ACT IN TIMES

The Voice is not a standard republican journal in the United States. Unlike FOX News, we do believe the facts cited by top class IPCC (UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scientists on global warming. They are clear. At this moment, we are on our way to the worst-case scenario. This article is dedicated to the Climate summit in Copenhagen, which has started on the 7th of December. It is a summit that was long expected to deliver a strong post-Kyoto framework, a summit that is likely to offer too little, too late.

Let us be clear from the beginning. Even if a strong political agreement was reached (which is very unlikely), it would still be too little, too late. Kofi Annan’s Global Humanitarian Forum estimated that every year 300,000 people already die because of climate change, most of them in Africa. However, Africa does not have a strong voice on the international scenario. African countries asked for a binding agreement in Copenhagen, but the super powers’ own interest, as usual, prevails. Although, this is a very short-sighted plan, as the World Energy Outlook 2009 shows again that every additional year of waiting will cost $500 billion between now and 2030, a cost which will be carried mostly by the same super powers. Top economists such as Lord Stern have been arguing this already for a longer time. However, top economists are not the same as businesses led by people who studied economics. For them, there own wallet mostly prevails. Solidarity is a hard exercise, so is responsibility.

WORST CASE SCENARIO

Everybody claims to know about and have the answer to the problem of climate change. Few, however, have relevant knowledge or act. In the end, it all comes to science. Last month measurements by a US observation post in Hawaii showed the world is on the path of the worst case scenario, meaning an increase of the global temperature by 6°C. Practically, this would mean high fatalities, massive water shortage, rising sea levels, a changing bio system and global migration as never seen before, just to mention a few drastic changes. So those not acting are not only irresponsible towards their global neighbours, but also towards their own children and grand children, who will bare costs in many ways. All has been known for years. Any article before this ‘most important summit of the 21st century’ could have explained this phenomenon. However, apparently many people and politicians are still in the phase of realizing why policies are needed.

COPENHAGEN

A legally binding commitment at Copenhagen will be impossible. Obama and Asian leaders were clear about that. The EU has made progress and might reach its Kyoto target. Europe, however, has no political leadership. The US will be necessary to get China on board. Any agreement without one of the five largest emitters (respectively China, US, EU, Russia and India) will be insufficient. Obama is facing a serious test whether or not he was worth his Nobel and for now he is falling short of expectations. For the first time, a crucial number has been said: 4% reduction in 2020 compared to 1990. This is not enough. Furthermore, the American people and politicians are ill informed. Although everybody is following Afghanistan and the health care bill, there is a momentum concerning Climate Change... Obama should seize it. The only thing we can hope for Copenhagen now is a strong political commitment. This is a necessity… but will always be too little, too late. |